ABSTRACT
This is a newly developed conceivable mathematical model for analyzing the spreading behavior of COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic in Egypt. We emphasized the impact of detection and control measures in flattening the spread of disease. This knowledge of the early spread dynamics of infection and assessing the efficiency of control measures is critical for reviewing and evaluating the potential for sustained transmission to occur during the coming waves. This proposed empirical model for the accelerated spread phase is based on non-linear regression technique, interpolations, tangents, least-square, and optimization methods to delimit different phases of the pandemic and predict the delayed phase. We prove that our model is mathematically consistent and present various simulation results using the best-estimated parameter value. The model can be easily updated when restrictions and other issues become changed. These simulation results may guide the local authorities to make timely right decisions. Copyright © 2022 Assiut University. All rights reserved.